Spring Market Probabilities: Where the Tailwinds Still Live in Today’s Global Asset Class ETF Tailwind Report
The asset classes still showing bullish institutional buying pressure and supportive multi-month forecasts — and the much longer list still running on bounce fuel rather than durable repair.
This report reflects conditions as of Thursday’s closing bell. In the current tape, markets can still get whipsawed by headlines, policy chatter, and geopolitical surprises that no technical model can fully forecast in advance. That is why StockCheatSheets is best used as a probabilities tool and a starting point for additional analysis rather than a crystal ball. Our work is built for trend-following conditions that typically unfold over weeks to months, so in messy environments like this, sometimes the best trade is patience rather than forced conviction.
Before we get into the ticker-by-ticker breakdown, the most useful top-down question is this: which global asset-class ETFs are showing the best forward-looking leadership through spring, and which ones still look vulnerable to rallies that fail? The three most important leading indicators for that read are Buying Pressure (Factor 4), which tells us whether institutions appear to be accumulating or distributing; the Intermediate Market Forecast (Factor 8), which points to the most likely direction over the next few weeks to few months; and the Long-Term Market Forecast (Factor 7), which frames the broader bias over several months. When all three line up bullishly, the odds improve that strength can persist. When they line up bearishly, rallies often turn into selling opportunities rather than the start of something durable.
On the bullish side, the leadership list is still fairly narrow. United States Oil Fund (USO), which tracks crude oil futures, remains the cleanest standout, with Very Bullish Buying Pressure, a Very Bullish Intermediate Market Forecast, and a Very Bullish Long-Term Market Forecast. Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO) still carries a bullish reading on all three of those key factors as well, though its shorter-term setup has clearly become less comfortable. Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC), the broad commodities basket, still has a Very Bullish Intermediate Market Forecast and a Bullish Long-Term Market Forecast, but Buying Pressure has slipped to only Neutral+, which makes it a little less authoritative than oil. Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) still looks constructive too, with Very Bullish Buying Pressure, a Very Bullish Intermediate Market Forecast, and a Bullish Long-Term Market Forecast. Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) also deserves mention, because it still shows Bullish Buying Pressure and a Very Bullish Intermediate Market Forecast, though its Long-Term Market Forecast is only Neutral+, which keeps it in the “tactical strength” camp rather than the “all-clear macro regime” camp.
On the bearish side, the list is much broader, and that is the real message of the report. Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) both still show Very Bearish Buying Pressure, a Bearish Long-Term Market Forecast, and at best only a Neutral+ to Very Bearish Intermediate Market Forecast depending on the duplicate SPY line you supplied. That tells us the broad U.S. stock market is getting more tradable near-term, but still lacks the kind of institutional sponsorship and higher-timeframe repair that usually marks a genuine regime change. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) looks even more suspicious from a breadth standpoint, with Very Bearish Buying Pressure and a Very Bearish Intermediate Market Forecast, suggesting the average stock still is not on especially solid footing. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and iShares Micro-Cap ETF (IWC), which represent smaller-cap risk appetite, also look weak where it counts, with Very Bearish Buying Pressure and only mixed-to-bearish higher-timeframe forecast structure. That is not what a broad healthy risk-on breakout usually looks like.
The same caution carries over into other risk-sensitive areas. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ) still show weak Buying Pressure and Very Bearish Intermediate Market Forecasts, which means they may bounce, but they are still vulnerable to rolling back over. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) remains one of the more damaged domestic risk groups, with Very Bearish Buying Pressure and a Very Bearish Intermediate Market Forecast. Credit is not exactly pounding the table either: iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF (VTC) both remain burdened by Bearish Buying Pressure and Bearish Long-Term Market Forecasts, which says risk appetite is stabilizing at best, not flourishing. Even in defensive fixed income, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) still looks structurally ugly, and iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) is hardly inspiring.
There are a couple of important nuance points. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which tracks gold bullion, is not yet bullish enough to join the leadership camp, but it is less damaged than before: its Intermediate Market Forecast has improved to Neutral+, and its strong trailing relative strength keeps it on watch. That matters because a less aggressive U.S. dollar and a better-behaved gold tape could become an early tell that financial conditions are beginning to ease for risk assets. Not confirmed yet, but worth monitoring. At the same time, the fact that many weak ETFs now show Bullish or Very Bullish Near-Term Forecasts tells us the market has become more bounce-prone. That makes the tape more tradeable, but not automatically more trustworthy.
So the spring backdrop, as of this close, still looks like a narrow leadership regime surrounded by a lot of structurally suspect rebound action. The highest-probability winners remain concentrated in oil, selective commodities, agriculture, and to some extent the U.S. dollar. The highest-probability laggards are still found in broad equities, smaller-cap risk, credit, crypto, long-duration bonds, and several international equity sleeves where Buying Pressure remains weak and the higher-timeframe forecasts have not really repaired. In plain English: the market is improving just enough to tempt people back in, but not yet enough to fully trust that the hard part is over.
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